How Does Bartolo Pass Through Waivers?

In an era of baseball that seems to be getting better and better pitching every year, one thing has remained the same: Pitchers are five innings and out. Sadly, a quality start is six innings of three runs or less. I hate to make people aware of this, but that means your starter left with a third of the game remaining for the relievers to pick up and has a 4.50 ERA. Not exactly what you think of when you think of quality pitching. What if you had a guy who gave you six plus innings per start and had an ERA between 2.65 and 4.00 in each of the last four seasons (three in the AL)? Without a name you probably look and think it can be almost any number three starter on almost any team, right? Well, chances are, a solid number three starter is exceeding $11 million a year. The numbers you just looked at are those of Bartolo Colon and his salary for next year is indeed $11 million.

Usually when the manager heads to the
mound, it spells the end for the pitcher

Everyone knows bullpens are more utilized and more taxed than ever in the game today. We have specialty lefties, seventh inning men, set-up men and closers. The game isn’t filled with many starters who give you seven or eight innings, let alone complete games. And most relievers come in and are one done. Forget that three inning save. Heck, that is not far off of what most teams are asking out of their starters. It is no secret that teams are just about all in need of more length from their starters. One bad start that goes three innings can tax your bullpen and cause havoc for the next week on your team’s pen. At the same time, if you have a guy who can give you an extra inning or so just about every time out, think of positive effect would be, giving a depleted pen an extra 30 to 35 innings off during the course of a year. That doesn’t sound like a lot but it is huge.  So, when a reasonably priced starter that can give you what you need comes along, shouldn’t you buy in?  

Look, Bartolo Colon, although not a new face to the game, has gotten a second life, maybe even a third life in his career. Over the past four years you can argue he is a legit number mid rotation guy on any team, maybe better. So, how does a number three starter who earns merely $11 million next season (which seems like a bargain in today’s game), pass through waivers?

Are teams thinking of the “old Bartolo Colon” who pitched to ERA’s over five in 2004 and 2006 and an ERA over six in 2007 and was not in baseball in 2010? Well, when he came back in 2011, he was solid. He

Bartolo Colon returned to baseball
in 2011 with the NY Yankees

averaged 5.85 innings per start and had a 4.00 ERA in his return year with the Bombers. He moved on to play in Oakland where he averaged 6.33 and 6.34 innings per start with ERA’s of 3.43 and 2.65 respectively in 2012 and 2013. Now, this year, with the Mets, he is averaging 6.7 innings per start with a 3.82 ERA. The point is, Colon is not a fluke. Since his return in 2011 he has been the real deal. So, what are teams, especially big market teams afraid of? $11 million for one season isn’t a huge gamble. The Red Sox would be a perfect stop for Colon to fill in one of their four open starter spots. This would be a perfect fit or the Dodgers to really bolster the bottom half of their rotation.  With Anibal Sanchez’s season in doubt for Detroit, why not take on Colon? With Garrett Richards of the Angels having the infamous Tommy John surgery, why not replace his productivity? He can help teams like Atlanta and San Francisco in their playoff push too. So, why is he still a New York Met?

Are teams afraid they are going to get an aging Bartolo? Yes, he is 41 years old but he has pitched well in his age 38, 39, 40 and thus far in his age 41 seasons. It is not as if he is keeping himself in great physical shape.

Bartolo Colon

That is not the source of his success. He is always around the zone, seems to have figured out how to hit spots with precision, manipulates the fastball (throwing a fastball 82.9% of the time in 2011, 89.2% in 2012, 85.5% in 2014 and 82.6% of the time this season according to fangraphs.com) and keeps the ball off the barrel of the bat. How much different can he be in eight months when the 2015 season begins? You aren't afraid he isn't going to be able to light up a radar gun because that is not the pitcher he is anymore. You aren't afraid he is going to fatigue down the stretch. He has actually posted better ERA's in 2012, 2013 and thus far this year post All-Star Break. Are they afraid of his past PED suspension? I hate to say it, but who knows how many players have and still are using PED’s. He served his 50 games so move on. Besides, if he is caught, you don’t pay his salary anyway. It is a one year gamble. Are they afraid of his $11 million next year? It is not a terribly deep free agent talent pool. If you aren’t willing to take on a contract from one of the “big three” free agent starters this off-season with Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, who will all likely command over $20 million a season, you are left with pretty slim pickings. You are probably going to have to settle for Justin Masterson, Brandon McCarthy, Jorge De La Rosa or one of a few others.

Now if you look at those guys, are they going to want to work on one year deals? Doubtful. Are they going

Jorge De La Rosa (above) has
posted a 4.21 ERA so far in 2014

to give you the production you can expect out of Colon? It doesn’t appear like it. McCarthy has seemed to have some sort of epiphany with the Yanks since he joined them but who knows if that will continue. Will they want contracts around what Colon is getting anyway? Most likely. So, why pay a multi-year deal, with similar dollars per year on a player you don’t expect to be as good as the one sitting right there? Ironically the out of shape, 41 year old with a past PED conviction is probably your safest bet and will likely give you the most bang for your buck. So, contenders and big spenders, this is the guy to take a chance on.     

The Shift Will Bring Better Players To The Game

For years the baseball fan has been enamored by the home-run. We love the homer so much that Major League Baseball even has a Home Run Derby to help quench our long ball appetite. Fans typically like to see more offense but the irony of it is that the same players that brought so many thrilling moments are the the ones that have not been able to adapt to the game and as a result has seen baseball score less and less runs. The name of this big change that players are having to deal with: "The Shift."  

Adam Dunn

Over the past few seasons we have seen the shift used more and more. It started out as something you more against the big power guys and now on any given night, you can see it for just about every player in a line-up. With the “power outage” we have seen growing over the past several seasons, the reason for the shift is certainly not because teams are stacked from 1-9 with Adam Dunn’s and Mark Texeira’s and Curtis Granderson’s in their batting order. This is a growing trend that is really sacrificing a lot of guys batting averages and more importantly, the number of runs a team scores. It seemed at first to be unusual to see the shift and you knew the guys the shift would be used on. Now you probably know more guys in the order who are not shifted against.

The reason for the shift seems to be easy. Guys are pulling the ball a ton. The shift eats a lot of their would be base hits. You would think professional hitters could hit the ball the opposite way but it is as if their mind set is so pull conscious in a game that over values the home-run so much that great hitters are willing to hit 50, 60, 70 points less as long as they still get their 30 or 35 home-runs and 100 RBI’s. Problem is, there does not appear to be an abundance of 30 homer guys, let alone 40 or 50 homer power guys that you would say, "Who cares, the shift can't keep it in the park." Yet day after day, hack after hack, guys are still swinging for the fences.

Mark Teixeira

Yeah, sure, you see a few guys trying to beat the shift and slap the ball the opposite way and are hitting lazy fly balls, popping up or flat out missing pitches they should hammer. It is a catch 22. From a young age these guys grow into the players they are now and whether it is pride getting in the way of sacrificing some power to get on base more or if it is a mental block or if there are just fewer good pure hitters, it is actually frustrating.

In the past, in order to give hitters more of an edge when pitching was seemingly unhittable, certain changes happened in the game that are very well documented. The two big things were the lowering of the pitchers mound and the institution of the DH. The problem is, what other changes really can be made without really starting to change the fundamentals of the game that we have grown to know and love for so many years? When the DH was brought in, that was considered to be a monstrous change and still many baseball purists despise it. So, I go back to the question... What changes can be done to bring more offense? And what would possibly be approved? Look at what it has taken to get instant replay into the game. Other sports have used for years yet in some fans eyes it takes away from the game because it is taking away from the "human element" of the game. Imagine what chaos it would cause if you wanted a second DH or some sort of special hitter rule.  

AT&T Park in San Francisco

Not that you can’t tweak the game a little bit but there is an antidote. What is it? Well, it is quite simple. Leave the rules as is but change the mentality of the game completely. Teams are going to have to value the overall hitter who can spray the ball to all fields more than a guy who can smash the ball or be beaten by the shift for the five thousandth time. Maybe teams also might consider larger field dimensions when building new stadiums. If you think about it, if you have a spacious right field for example, as you do in SanFrancisco, a lot more base hits will fall in through the shift because there is so much space to cover. When you have a stadium with a short porch, and you can’t say short porch without mentioning the right field at Yankees Stadium, there is just no room to squeeze a ball through when you scrunch so many defenders on one side of the field that is small to begin with unless it goes over the wall. It is truly like a bad math equation: If you add smaller ballpark dimensions with pull hitters who refuse (or can’t go the other way) and the shift, what will you get? The answer is exactly what we have… A decline in runs scored.

However, let’s be honest, how many teams are in need of new stadiums and are willing to make these radical changes to their ballparks when everyone still loves the home-run so much? With the way the game is played now, yeah, sure, you will see your 440 foot blasts but that solo shot counts just the same as a single with a man in scoring position.

What the shift is actually going to force is that it is going to force a change that no rule can implement: Better,

Alex Rodriguez

all around hitters. Granted their legacy's are tainted but what made guys like Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Ryan Braun so special was their ability to go gap to gap, up the middle, pull the ball go the opposite way and could do it for average and power. It is also what has made Giancarlo Stanton stand out so much in his early career. I’m not sure you will see many A-Rod’s or Stanton’s  in history but I think the shift is going to force the game to take a “little league approach” where you are told to “drive it where it is pitched.”

If you ask me, it will mean more guys like Robinson Cano will be favored… Even a younger Cano before he honed his skills and the strike zone, because he could always take it to all fields and show some power. Again, not sure how many Cano’s you will see through history, but it is that type of hitter that will yield the most value.

Most teams would rather a .330 hitter with 10 homers than a .230 hitter with 40 homers. Or, if I am wrong, we will continue to see a downward spiral of runs scored. However, it is a heck of a lot easier to hit singles and doubles than it is to wait for a big bopper to hit homers to get you through every game, especially when you face the cream of the crop in the playoffs and aren’t beating up of number four and five starters.

Nick Markakis

So, right now people in baseball seem to be a little freaked about the lack of runs. This is in a weird way a good thing however. It will force the scouting and development of more pure solid hitter who are good all around players. 

So,as we go forward in this movement, be on the lookout for more superstars that mimic the style of Howie Kendrick, Nick Markakis ad Robinson Cano type players and less Ryan Howards, David Ortiz and Adam Dunn type hitters and ironically you will see the pendulum swing once again to where the offense is dominant.