How Does Bartolo Pass Through Waivers?

In an era of baseball that seems to be getting better and better pitching every year, one thing has remained the same: Pitchers are five innings and out. Sadly, a quality start is six innings of three runs or less. I hate to make people aware of this, but that means your starter left with a third of the game remaining for the relievers to pick up and has a 4.50 ERA. Not exactly what you think of when you think of quality pitching. What if you had a guy who gave you six plus innings per start and had an ERA between 2.65 and 4.00 in each of the last four seasons (three in the AL)? Without a name you probably look and think it can be almost any number three starter on almost any team, right? Well, chances are, a solid number three starter is exceeding $11 million a year. The numbers you just looked at are those of Bartolo Colon and his salary for next year is indeed $11 million.

Usually when the manager heads to the
mound, it spells the end for the pitcher

Everyone knows bullpens are more utilized and more taxed than ever in the game today. We have specialty lefties, seventh inning men, set-up men and closers. The game isn’t filled with many starters who give you seven or eight innings, let alone complete games. And most relievers come in and are one done. Forget that three inning save. Heck, that is not far off of what most teams are asking out of their starters. It is no secret that teams are just about all in need of more length from their starters. One bad start that goes three innings can tax your bullpen and cause havoc for the next week on your team’s pen. At the same time, if you have a guy who can give you an extra inning or so just about every time out, think of positive effect would be, giving a depleted pen an extra 30 to 35 innings off during the course of a year. That doesn’t sound like a lot but it is huge.  So, when a reasonably priced starter that can give you what you need comes along, shouldn’t you buy in?  

Look, Bartolo Colon, although not a new face to the game, has gotten a second life, maybe even a third life in his career. Over the past four years you can argue he is a legit number mid rotation guy on any team, maybe better. So, how does a number three starter who earns merely $11 million next season (which seems like a bargain in today’s game), pass through waivers?

Are teams thinking of the “old Bartolo Colon” who pitched to ERA’s over five in 2004 and 2006 and an ERA over six in 2007 and was not in baseball in 2010? Well, when he came back in 2011, he was solid. He

Bartolo Colon returned to baseball
in 2011 with the NY Yankees

averaged 5.85 innings per start and had a 4.00 ERA in his return year with the Bombers. He moved on to play in Oakland where he averaged 6.33 and 6.34 innings per start with ERA’s of 3.43 and 2.65 respectively in 2012 and 2013. Now, this year, with the Mets, he is averaging 6.7 innings per start with a 3.82 ERA. The point is, Colon is not a fluke. Since his return in 2011 he has been the real deal. So, what are teams, especially big market teams afraid of? $11 million for one season isn’t a huge gamble. The Red Sox would be a perfect stop for Colon to fill in one of their four open starter spots. This would be a perfect fit or the Dodgers to really bolster the bottom half of their rotation.  With Anibal Sanchez’s season in doubt for Detroit, why not take on Colon? With Garrett Richards of the Angels having the infamous Tommy John surgery, why not replace his productivity? He can help teams like Atlanta and San Francisco in their playoff push too. So, why is he still a New York Met?

Are teams afraid they are going to get an aging Bartolo? Yes, he is 41 years old but he has pitched well in his age 38, 39, 40 and thus far in his age 41 seasons. It is not as if he is keeping himself in great physical shape.

Bartolo Colon

That is not the source of his success. He is always around the zone, seems to have figured out how to hit spots with precision, manipulates the fastball (throwing a fastball 82.9% of the time in 2011, 89.2% in 2012, 85.5% in 2014 and 82.6% of the time this season according to fangraphs.com) and keeps the ball off the barrel of the bat. How much different can he be in eight months when the 2015 season begins? You aren't afraid he isn't going to be able to light up a radar gun because that is not the pitcher he is anymore. You aren't afraid he is going to fatigue down the stretch. He has actually posted better ERA's in 2012, 2013 and thus far this year post All-Star Break. Are they afraid of his past PED suspension? I hate to say it, but who knows how many players have and still are using PED’s. He served his 50 games so move on. Besides, if he is caught, you don’t pay his salary anyway. It is a one year gamble. Are they afraid of his $11 million next year? It is not a terribly deep free agent talent pool. If you aren’t willing to take on a contract from one of the “big three” free agent starters this off-season with Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, who will all likely command over $20 million a season, you are left with pretty slim pickings. You are probably going to have to settle for Justin Masterson, Brandon McCarthy, Jorge De La Rosa or one of a few others.

Now if you look at those guys, are they going to want to work on one year deals? Doubtful. Are they going

Jorge De La Rosa (above) has
posted a 4.21 ERA so far in 2014

to give you the production you can expect out of Colon? It doesn’t appear like it. McCarthy has seemed to have some sort of epiphany with the Yanks since he joined them but who knows if that will continue. Will they want contracts around what Colon is getting anyway? Most likely. So, why pay a multi-year deal, with similar dollars per year on a player you don’t expect to be as good as the one sitting right there? Ironically the out of shape, 41 year old with a past PED conviction is probably your safest bet and will likely give you the most bang for your buck. So, contenders and big spenders, this is the guy to take a chance on.