Last season the Indians found a diamond in the rough with Fausto Carmona. Carmona, in 2006, was 1-10 with a reached earned run average nearing five and a half. In 2007 Carmona went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA.
This season, the Indians thought they uncovered yet another superstar in Cliff Lee. Last season Lee went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA. With a 9-1 record and a 2.45 ERA, it is hard to say that the Indians haven't found something in Lee who wasn't even a sure if he would make the team out of spring training.
The problem the Indians is that Lee is starting to have a Jekyll and Hyde season.
In baseball, a quality pitching outing means that the pitcher goes 6 or more innings giving up 3 runs or less.
Lee started off the season with seven consecutive quality outings giving up just four runs throughout those starts. He had a complete game shutout and a no decision in a game against the Blue Jays where he pitched nine scoreless but the game went into extras.
It took until May 18 before his ERA went above one, however, since that game, his ERA has gone all the way to 2.45 over the course of four games, three of the four games not being a quality outing.
On the 18th, Lee faced the Reds going 5.2 innings giving up 6 runs (5 earned). In his next start, Lee had another quality outing pitching 6.2 innings giving up 2 earned. However, things went down hill in his next two starts.
Lee pitched 6 innings giving up 4 earned against the Royals and then 5 innings and six earned runs against the Rangers.
Having three non-quality outings and one outing that was considered a quality outing, just fitting the criteria, going 6 giving up 3 against the Mariners on April 30, you can conceivably say that if the offense didn't bail him out, he could have 4 losses compared to just one and take away 3 of his wins. Although, if we were to do this, we would have to add a win for his 9 innings of shutout ball where he received a no decision.
If we were to do all this, and give him a win - loss record based on his performance, then his record would be 7-4. That is a fine record, however, chances are, he would not be in talks when it comes to the Cy Young Award or starting the All-Star Game.
The bigger problem is not who is and isn't going to be in line for awards or other honors and accolades, but the problem is for the Indians season. The Tribe is 5 games under .500 and 5.5 games out of first with Carmona and Jake Westbrook on the DL, while C.C. Sabathia is vastly underachieving in his contract season, with a 3-7 record with an ERA of 4.72 heading into today's game.
If Lee struggles and turns back to the old Lee, the Indians will be in severe trouble. Only left now from the original starting rotation will be the youngster Aaron Laffey and Paul Byrd.
Laffey is 3-3 with a 3.02 ERA this far this season. However, as a new comer to the big leagues, Laffey currently has a distinct advantage over the hitters who know little about him. As word gets around, scouting reports continue to be assembled on him and players see him more, his effectiveness will be less and less as time goes on and will have to learn to make adjustments. The only other man from the Tribe's original starting rotation is Paul Byrd who is more than well known around the league posting a record of 2-5 with a 4.66 ERA.
With Sabathia and Byrd pitching poorly, Westbrook and Carmona on the DL, and Lee going back to his old, ineffective roots, not only will Lee's hopes for a Cy Young be in jeopardy, but as well may be the Indians season.
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