Saturday, August 30, 2014

Relievers, Not Starters Need To Be Team Focus... Just Ask The Yanks


Joe Girardi makes call to the bullpen
It is truly amazing how teams will seemingly force their young home grown talent into the role of a starting pitcher in the hopes of molding the next Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez or Max Scherzer. In a time in baseball that has seen Tommy John surgery become the equivalent of a child going to mommy for a booboo and where a quality start only means the pitcher goes six innings of three runs or less, who wants to invest all their time and money into starting pitching, especially when you have more opportunity at a cheaper price to find and keep the next David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel or Trevor Rosenthal?  

The theory seemed to be that it was always much harder to buy good pitching than good hitting. However, baseball is now in a bit of an unfamiliar place as that theory has sort of flipped as teams are just not scoring as many runs on a consistent basis as they had in recent years.

Nobody really knows why there has been such a major shift and going switching from a hitter’s era to a pitcher’s era in a blink of an eye. Maybe it is just the current talent pool of this generation, maybe it is the flame throwers and speciality pitchers coming out of the pen that the game hadn’t seen before the last five or ten years, maybe it is all the shifts taking away hits and RBI’s, maybe it is all these advanced scouting metrics where fielders are placed so perfectly that they seemingly don’t even move half of the time in order to make plays anymore, maybe it is that steroids are less prevalent in the game (although I don’t believe that to be true) or maybe you can chalk it up to being a current fluke in the game today that will eventually fix itself, but one way or another, we are living in a new era of baseball and that is an era dominated by pitching.

I know I seem to contradict myself saying there is much greater bullpen depth yet teams need to focus on relievers. By all means, if you have a budding superstar on your hands who has the poise, the stuff and the ability to be a starter, then go for it. But don’t take a guy that is tailor made for the pen and try to make him a starter. The most obvious name that comes to mind in recent memory is undoubtedly Joba Chamberlain.
Joba Chamberlain
Everyone knows his story so I won’t bore you by going back over it. But he should have been one of the most dominant relievers of the past five or so years and could have been the successor to the greatest closer in history, Mariano Rivera. Instead, well, Joba has had an ok career, but not that one of a should be mega star.  

Joba wasn’t the first and surly wasn’t the last to be mishandled in his career but may be the most infamous for losing his potential at legendary status. With that said, players are also often discarded on the other side of the coin if they can’t make it as a starter. One of the most notable in my mind is Tyler Clippard who ironically enough is another former Yankee.

Clippard’s story is not quite as well known and maybe that is because he went from being the afterthought to the star where Joba sort of went in the other direction. Clippard was a pretty good Yankees prospect. Throughout his minor league career he played in 164 games, starting 131 of those games. In 2007 he made six appearances, all as a starting pitcher, for the Yanks. He was rather unimpressive with a 3-1 record and 6.33 ERA and averaging less than five innings per start. He was traded in December of that year to the Nationals for Jonathan Albaladejo.

Albaladejo tossed 59.1 innings in 49 relief appearances accumulating a 4.70 ERA over the course of three years out of the pen for the Yanks. He missed all of 2011, pitched three innings in 2012 with the D-Backs and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since.

Tyler Clippard
Clippard on the other hand was turned into a reliever by the Nats who must have seen a kid with good stuff and a funks delivery. Instead of discarding him like the Yanks or saying he will make a fine number five starter or forever be a “quadruple A player” who can come up and make spot starts, they converted him into a reliever. The now 29 year old has pitched in seven seasons with the Nationals making just two starts, both of those coming in 2008. In his career with Washington, he has pitched in 400 games (398 relief appearance) pitching to an ERA of just 2.65 and making the All-Star team in 2011 and this year. Not that he is close to the aforementioned Mariano Rivera, but do you know who else was a “failed starter?” Yes, you got it, it was the legendary Mo himself.   

I’m not going to hate too much on the Yanks here as baseball is by far the hardest sport to scout and find the next big superstar. However, the Nats did what the Yanks should have done and that was take a kid with the stuff and character of a reliever and turn him into one instead of basically saying he is a starter or bust.
     
Look, I can’t prove that the Yanks trying to force those extra innings caused Joba to need Tommy John Surgery and cause setbacks in his career and I can’t prove that by Clippard not taxing his arm with extra innings he’d pitch as a starter has kept him from needing the surgery or that he wouldn’t have blossomed into a fine starter but it just seems that these guys were both destined for the pen, not starting. And as far as Tommy John Surgery, it just seems that these athletes today are so big and muscular that their bodies, and arms in particularly, are not able to take the consistent force and tork that their massive frames are helping provide them with when throwing the ball.

While that doesn’t go for everyone, one way to potentially lessen the chance of your starters taxing their arm and preventing Tommy John Surgery could be pitching less innings. The way you do that is by having more quality arms out of the pen. Besides, even if the extra innings aren’t contributing to the injuries we see, the pen is where you get your wins and losses and by the end of the year probably pitches nearly as many innings as your starters do. Think about it, if a starter gives you six strong, you are happy but that still leaves a third of the game for relievers. And who pitches when they starter gets KO’d early or if there are extra innings? Yes, relievers. So, instead of investing so much money into your starters, plug that money into having a seemingly endless supply of solid relievers that can come out of your pen every night.

Not that you want it to happen, but God forbid one of your guys goes down with an injury, you have someone to step right on in without the chaos of needing to find another starter to take on five or so innings. Instead you are looking for a guy to give you one or two innings. And because they are less expensive (typically), you can afford to pay seven solid relievers for the price of one superstar pitcher.

CC Sabathia
Despite all the Yankees issues this season, they have done one thing very well and that was building a good young bullpen with great arms. The Yanks continue to have a chance to win even despite losing CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, their supposed ace and number three or four starter. The two pitchers combined for 12 games before having season ending surgeries and their newest big free agent signing, Japanese phenom, Masahiro Tanaka has missed about half the season as he may or may not need Tommy John Surgery. Together those three pitchers are paid a little over $48 million this year and have combined for just 196 inning pitched to date. In their limited action, Sabathia and Nova were also drains on their team and their bullpen with Sabathia pitching to a 5.28 ERA and averaging 5 3/4 innings per start while Nova had an 8.27 ERA averaging about 5 innings per start. However, because they were able to make a couple decent trades getting Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano and have some kids come up such as Shane Greene, who can get five or six solid innings, the relievers give the Yanks a chance every single day.

The Bombers front line has first time all-star Dellin Betances in the eighth and 2011 all-star and great late inning reliever, David Robertson as their closer. Their second tier guys are Adam Warren and Shawn Kelley who have each had a chance to save some games as well but see more time in the sixth and seventh. However, with four pitchers able to pitch the sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth inning, manager Joe Girardi can keep guys fresh and when one of these guys gets a little worn or injured, as long as it doesn’t happen all at once, the team has players who can step up for that one guy. The Yankees recently added Esmil Rogers and has shown flashes of being unhittable and with a little more work, very well could be thrown into that “second tier” with Warren and Kelley very soon.

David Robertson
Oh yeah, and what are the combined salaries of Warren, Kelley, Betances and Robertson? Well, (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts) their closer, Robertson, earns $5.215 million although he is due to hit free agency after this season, Kelley earns $1.765 million and Warren and Betances are each a little over $500,000. About eight million for one of the best bullpens in baseball… Not too bad.   

So, all teams, whether small, mid or big market teams, building an “unhittable” bullpen from top to bottom is the cheapest and most effective way to better your team in the long haul of 162 games. And who knows, maybe it saves some Tommy John Surgeries. Even if that is not the case it will save the starters from being forced to throw that extra inning or two in order to “save the pen” and stops that fatigued pitcher from tossing those few extra pitches, including that cookie you see so often from tiring pitchers that costs your team a game. 

It is simple, build a strong pen that runs seven strong and the team will flourish. A great bullpen makes a poor team into a decent team, a decent team into a contender and a contender into a World Series favorite. Just ask the Yanks.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

A Run Saved Is Better Than A Run Earned -- The "Big Donkey" Is An Endangered Species For A Reason

David Ortiz
In a current day and age where runs are at a premium, defense has to be taken more seriously. Yes, we all love to see those big flys that only guys like "The Big Donkey" Adam Dunn, "Big Papi" David Ortiz and "The Big Man" Ryan Howard can deliver. However, if you want your team to make the playoffs, there is a good chance you actually don't want one of these boppers on your team. Yes, I said "DON'T."

Adam Dunn
As the saying goes, "A penny saved is a penny earned." Well, the same goes in baseball. Unfortunately when these hitters take the field, the opposite of this phrase comes true oh so many times for their respective teams as they often cost their team more defensively than they can give offensively. Do you want a guy who can hit you some homers? Of course. Do you want guys who can hit homers and not much else? Probably not. Some guys seem as if they were just made to DH. Of course the DH is not an option in the National League and many American League teams seem like to use the DH to give guys "half days off" rather than making it a position dedicated to just one player.

So many power guys would will thrown in left or at first because they are considered the easier of the positions to play and need the least athletic ability. The problem is, while they are less of a liability at these positions, they are still indeed that... A liability.

Ryan Howard
I think most people would agree that the game is as much mental as it is physical. Well, let's tackle the mental aspect of the game through a hypothetical situation. Say you are a Phillies fan and you are two games out of first in September and you have Cole Hamels on the hill. Let's say there are two on and two out and he has a one run lead in the seventh. All the pressure in the world be on him but he is extra focused and he channels all of that energy that is running through his body to make his pitch and a ground ball is bounced down the first base line to Howard who is playing no doubles. Hamels would have to be thinking he is out of the inning and is about to jog back to the dugout as the hero. Instead, in a split second his emotions will hit a complete high and then plummet to a complete low. Hamels looks over and sees the ball eat up his first baseman, he has to run to back up a potential play at the plate, the ball heads down the line, a couple runs are in, a man is now on second and his team is losing. Now instead of shaking his teammates hands in the dugout, he is getting a visit from the pitching coach to settle him down and maybe go over a quick scouting report.

Cole Hamels
As a fan you can feel it too. It is as if there is an impending doom ahead and the next thing you know your pitcher throws a cookie down the middle of the plate and give up a bomb or the fielders become flat footed and they just further compound the issue. It goes from what should have been an uneventful inning to an inning where they are just trying to stop the bleeding. Sounds familiar, right?  

However, we also said the game is half physical. Well, let's continue on this hypothetical journey. Hamels is back on the mound, down a run and has to quickly gather himself again. Even if he gets the out, how many more pitches does it take out if him? Instead of pitching another inning is he just trying to get himself out of the current predicament? We live in an era where at 100 pitches you are almost automatically pulled from the game. If Hamels has to be pulled, how many relievers does it take to get the outs that should have been gotten already? Will that reliever or relievers be able to pitch again tomorrow or did they throw too many
A call to the bullpen
pitches? Did they have to use their set-up man or closer early? What happens if they go into extra innings? Who is your go to guy then? Do they have to make tomorrow's starter come in? It is amazing how one play can cause a series of events that in baseball can become a managers nightmare for the next five games.

Outside of the obvious consequences of a bad play that ends in more pitches pitched, more pitchers used and more runs given up is that so often a team after a deflating play can have the momentum turn on them completely. Momentum may be the biggest asset to a team in a game where you play every day. If you are going well, the game is fun, everyone is loose and things just come naturally. When there is a negative carryover of a few bad plays all of a sudden it can make the pitchers and bullpen become quickly overused, the ball club looks and feels tired, old, frustrated and overall, just flat.

James Loney
Teams can't be have their roster stacked with All-Stars who can do it all and most teams can't or won't let the DH be a "position" like it is for the Red Sox. If they can keep a great bat in their line-up, great for the Red Sox. However, if the day came that the Red Sox had to play Ortiz in the field every day, that is the time the Fenway Faithful would have to say good bye and farewell to their beloved slugger. If you had to choose between James Loney and David Ortiz at first on an every day basis, you will not worry about the extra 15 homers Ortiz can give you because you know what the real consequence of having his bat in the lineup can and likely will end up costing you and your team.