Sox Gamble on Deadline Deals

The Boston Red Sox have been out of the playoff hunt for a while now and it seemed evident that that they were going to play the part that is typically played by the Marlins in having a major team fire-sale. It is a bit different however as Boston got serious major league ready players and All-Stars in return. They were not in the hunt for prospects that will help them five years down the line.

Jon Lester

You look at the standout players in outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig and pitcher Joe Kelly. You figure, that is a great return when you figure that the main cogs in the deal Boston made were Jon Lester who was going to become a free agent and Lackey who had just one year left on his contract.That is not quite the case however.

Yes, the middle of the line-up looks great with Cespedes, David Ortiz and Craig possibly as your 3-4-5 hitters. You throw in superstar Dustin Pedroia likely batting second, first base slugger Mike Napoli possibly batting sixth and their good looking youngsters, shortstop Xander Bogaerts and the versatile Brock Holt in that line-up and pitchers are not going to have too many easy games against the Sox, especially when playing in the legendary shoebox known as Fenway Park.

So, you are probably wondering where the bad news is, right? Well, there are two glaring problems. There is their lack of pitching and a huge outfield problem.

Starting with pitching, try to convince a pitcher to sign with you, playing half their games at Fenway where runs score as if it were the beginning and not the end of the “Steroid Era” and where your current ace can very well be new acquisition, Kelly who has just 266 career innings pitched in his young career.

Although Lester has been very open about still possibly signing with his now former team, once they traded him that possibility went down drastically. If he couldn’t hatch out a deal over the course of the year and then end up traded, what are the chances he honestly returns? This game is also a business and it is a prudent business move for Lester to drive up his asking price simply by letting other teams know that Boston, a large market team willing to spend is still very much on his radar.

Max Scherzer

So, what other big starters are on the market?  There are arguably only two others out there that can fill the

spot as a team ace in Max Scherzer and James Shields. Scherzer could very well command money similar to Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in the $30 million range. And Shields, probably a much more reasonably priced pitcher will still command money probably similar to Lester. If that is the case, why not just sign your own home grown guy?

Factor in that there are certainly 29 other teams who want those guys and that one of the top teams may very well be their bitter rivals, the New York Yankees who can very well be on their way to not making the playoffs in two consecutive seasons, the health and effectiveness of their ace CC Sabathia is in question, Hiroki Kuroda, the soon to be 40 year old, has made it known he wants to finish his career in Japan, Ivan Nova will likely still be on the DL from having Tommy John Surgery, Michael Pineda is a huge question mark  and most importantly, nobody knows what Masahiro Tanka’s immediate future holds. If Tanaka requires Tommy John surgery and misses 2015, the Yankees are going to make a huge push on all these guys.

Outside of their division, after the Dodgers have poured so much money into their team in the last couple years, if they don’t win it all, expect them to be in on these stars as well. It is not going to be easy for Boston to bring in any one of these few elite pitchers to head their staff.

So, now you have a team with no veteran pitching. Where do you go from there? Well, let’s look at their strengths from their deals. Cespedes is under contract for 2015 and Craig is under contract potentially through 2018. Craig is interesting as he comes relatively cheap at $5.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016, $11 million in 2017 and has a $13 million club option with a $1million buyout in 2018 according to Cot’s Contracts. Despite a down season this year, historically, if this guy can do one thing, it is rake.

Allen Craig (above) unable
to come  up with ball

The problem? Well, Craig is a defensive liability. He has a career -3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), according to fangraphs.com, in the outfield where he has played all three outfield positions. The vast majority of his games have come in right however. Maybe playing at Fenway with the very short left field will help him. However, that means Boston’s other new acquisition, Cespedes, who is a left fielder by trade is forced to play right or center. One would assume that switching from left to right field should not be too much of a difference, although you never know how a player will adjust until you see them there. Another caveat is that Fenway has a right field so vast it seems to play more like a center field position and Shane Victorino is surely looking to take back his spot in right as the Sox still owe him $13 million for next season.

Yoenis Cespedes

So, what is the difference between Cespedes in left compared to center? Well, he is very much an above average player in left with a career UZR of 8.5 there but his career UZR in center is a concerning -9.4. You might say then, “Let’s just move Victorino into center where he has played a lot in his career.” Well, according to fangraphs.com, this aging, recently oft injured superstar hasn’t played a game in center since 2013 where he played just 108 innings and in 2013 sported an outstanding 25 UZR in right. Fangraphs.com calculates that a player with a UZR of 15 or higher is “gold glove caliber.” So why would you move him? This leads back to the question of how will Cespedes fare at a new outfield positon, especially if it is center field at Fenway with the “Green Monster” on one side and seemingly nothing but space on the other?

Craig is what really throws everything off. He really belongs at first but Napoli is settled in there. Napoli is no longer a catcher and David Ortiz is obviously their DH. Maybe Craig takes over first in 2016 but looking at next year, barring some trades or injures, it looks as if they have an overcrowded, injury plagued outfield with men playing out of position.

So, despite having a ton of hitting, how is a team with little pitching and a below average defense, especially in the spacious Boston outfield, really going to work out? Nobody really knows. One thing is certain however. If Boston really intends to make a serious playoff push in 2015, their 2014 offseason signings and trades had better be even more mind twirling than their extremely aggressive trade deadline maneuvers were.