Monday, May 26, 2008

What's Going On With New York, New York?

The New York Yankees and Mets were both predicted to have great seasons as they have some of the greatest talent and made some of the biggest signings with the Johan Santana being traded to the Mets and Alex Rodriguez returning to the Bronx with a 10 year contract. Both teams were expected to be playoff contenders and right now, things have not panned out like that for either team thus far, a little past a quarter of the season, as they both right now just want to get to a .500 record.

The Mets are currently three games under .500 and the Yankees were at .500 yesterday before wasting another great outing by Darrel Rasner who pitched six innings, giving up just one run and receiving the loss, bringing the team back to a game under the magical .500 mark.

To both teams defenses they have suffered some severe injuries to main players on their team. The Yankees have lost Jeter for about a week, A-Rod for three weeks to a month and have not had Jorge Posada healthy from the start although he did play a little before they placed him on the DL. The Mets lost Pedro Martinez during his first start as well as El Duke before the season even started. Then there is the disaster the Mets call their outfield, with Moises Alou being Moises Alou - being injured virtually half the time it seems, Ryan Church having concussion problems, Angel Pagan, Marlon Anderson and Endy Chavez all having injuries as well, Chavez being the only current player listed not to be on the DL.

However, the injuries are not the only problem for either team. Many players have not played up to their potential that their contracts say they are supposed to play at. The Yankees' Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano have been taring the cover off the ball the past week or two but before then had averages on the interstate and are still around the .230 mark. The Yankees also placed a lot of stock in youngsters Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

Chamberlain has been Chamberlain, however the Yankees are moving him from set-up man to starter placing a lot more responsibility on guys who can't handle the responsibility such as Kyle Farnsworth. Phil Hughes has found himself on the DL with a fractured rib. He claimed his rib was not a problem for him, but how can't a fractured rib effect your performance? Not to mention he found out he needs prescription glasses. How he didn't realize he need glasses, I don't know, but he needs glasses. He is due back around the All-Star break. If he had just a nine ERA in six starts with a fractured rib and bad eyes he has to be a great pitcher when he can see and his ribs are healed.

Darrell Rasner however has really taken over the number four slot in the rotation, at least for the time being. In four starts, he has four quality outings having done six innings or more in each start and giving up two runs or less in each of his starts and even pitched seven shutout innings against the Baltimore Orioles a couple starts ago. His 3-1 record, which should be 4-0 if the Yankees provided him offense in his last start, and under two ERA may be hard to take out of the starting rotation although someone will have to move with Chamberlain being groomed to join the rotation, Hughes scheduled to be returning around the All-Star break and Ian Kennedy pitching well of late. Doubtful the Yankees will have a seven man rotation. Obviously Chien-Ming Wang, the ace of the staff will stay put as will Pettitte. It is doubtful Mike Mussina will be taken out of the rotation, especially pitching so well his past five or so starts. So, Chamberlain is apparently going to be part of the rotation, then what happens with the last spot? Hughes was supposed to be the biggest prospect possibly in all of baseball. I already made a case for Rasner, and I guess we'll see how Kennedy continues to pitch. Rasner can pitch relief and can maybe take over for the spot Chamberlain will leave behind, and may be able to be used like Mariano Rivera was early in his career, pitching both the seventh and eighth inning before handing it off to Mo in the ninth. Then, Hughes can take over as the fifth man and Kennedy would be the odd man out, possible being sent back to Triple A, but this is all just possibility and really depends on the health of all the starters. Things always seem to work themselves out.

Ian Kennedy struggled so much he was sent back down to Triple A, but has pitched much better since his recall in his past two starts. It will however take more than two descent starts to make the team more confident in him. It is however too early to predict how good Kennedy or Hughes will be. Personally I see Hughes as a solid number two starter in the near future and Kennedy as a descent three starter or a real solid number four. I don't know of anyone with a crystal ball out there that can let me know if I am right but if you do, I am curious and I think the Yankees would be as well.

The Mets - well they are their own story - where do you even start with them? Well, lets start with the new face of the Mets; Johan Santana. Santana has done a nice job going 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA but I think people thought he would be a little more dominant, especially in the NL where he no longer had to deal with the DH and got to take on the opposing pitcher instead. Since he has started to pitch a lot of innings (having pitched over 100 innings every season since 2002 and has pitched over 200 innings every season since 2004) he has had a high ERA of 3.33 last season and a low of 2.61 in 2004.

Just to give Santana's line, Santana pitched 108.1 innings with a 2.99 ERA in 2002, 158.1 innings with a 3.07 ERA in 2003 , 228 innings with a 2.61 ERA in 2004 , 231.2 innings with a 2.87 ERA in 2005 , 233.2 innings with a 2.77 ERA in 2006 and 219 innings with a 3.33 ERA as mentioned earlier, in 2007.

Santana's change-up, which is his best pitch, may not have quite as much effect as he has lost a few miles per hour on his fastball, having pitched in the mid and even upper 90's to now pitching more around the 90-92 mark, give or take. These few miles in difference can impact his change as the purpose of the change is to look and move like a fast ball but move much slower. However, if his fast ball is not as fast, his change is less deceptive. So far this year, his biggest problem seems to be that he has been susceptible to the homerun ball, already in double digits and has not been quite as economical with his pitches as most would like. However, whether he has a 2.50 ERA or a 3.50 ERA, he is still going to be the ace of the staff and is going to provide the team with a lot of quality innings. He, like Andy Pettitte for the Yankees, is also more of a second half pitcher.

Now, I will admit that John Maine has pitched better than I would have thought, having, at this point anyway, very similar stats to Santana, with a record of 5-4 with a 3.41 ERA. Now, not to toot my own horn, but as I mentioned in another article, Oliver Perez is not having a repeat season of last season, you couldn't trust the nice start Mike Pelfrey was off to, although I still believe he has a lot of promise for a few years form now and Nelson Figueroa was not going to be able to be a respectable fifth starter, which he is no longer.

Then there is "beloved" Aaron Heilman who used to be the set-up man but his nearing six ERA has moved him down the line as far as trusted relievers. Really, outside of Billy Wagner who has pitched beautifully this season as well as Pedro Feliciano, the Mets don't have too many people they feel comfortable calling on in big situations.

Their men in the field aren't exactly a prize either. Jose Reyes is playing a mediocre shortstop, already with seven errors and we have seen Reyes making quite a few judgements in error running the bases as if he is taking his hitting woes into the field. He is only batting .276 with a .335 OBP. This has limited him to 20 stolen base chances, stealing the base 15 times. This is great for most players, but not for Reyes who last season stole 60 out of 75 attempts in 2005, 64 of 81 the next season and a career best last season swiping 78 bags in 99 attempts.

I don't even want to get into it but have to mention Carlos Delgado. He is not on the team for his fielding, being average but is on the team for his bat. Problem is, his production has dropped dramatically the past two seasons. Two seasons ago, in his first season as a Met, Delgado had a great season, while batting just .265 had an OBP of .361 with 38 dingers and 114 RBI's. Last season he batted .258 with an OBP of .333 with just 24 homers and 87 RBI's. Now, this season, the numbers are going down once again. He is currently batting .215 with an OBP of under .300 (at .294) and has already wiffed at strike three 41 times, which has him on pace for a career high of over 200 K's, which would also be the first time he ever struck out 200 times in one season, with his previous career high comming in 1999 with he Blue Jays with 141 strikeouts.

Lastly, there is the controversial signing of Luis Castillo, whose pain you can feel when watching him play in the field as he battles his bad knees. He is also batting just .259 at the plate although he has a respectable OBP of .361.

Things don't look good for the Mets or Yankees right now, but with some key players returning for each team and others who just aren't playing to the stats on the back of their baseball card, you figure have to snap out of it eventually. It may not be pretty or easy for either team but wouldn't bet against either team turning it around in the last three quarters of the season and making a run in the playoffs.

As the old saying goes, the baseball season is a race not a sprint.

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